On the Generalizability of Experimental Results

The age-old question of the generalizability of the results of experiments that are conducted in artificial laboratory settings to more realistic inferential and decision making situations is considered in this paper. Conservatism in probability revision provides an example of a result that 1) has received wide attention, including attention in terms of implications for real-world decision making, on the basis of experiments conducted in artificial settings and 2) is now apparently thought by many to be highly situational and not at all a ubiquitous phenomenon, in which case its implications for real-world decision making are not as extensive as originally claimed. In this paper we consider the questions of generalizations from the laboratory to the real world in some detail, both within the context of the experiments regarding conservatism and within a more general context. In addition, we discuss some of the difficulties inherent in experimentation in realistic settings, suggest possible procedures for avoiding or at least alleviating such difficulties, and make a plea for more realistic experiments

How many crowdsourced workers should a requester hire?

Recent years have seen an increased interest in crowdsourcing as a way of obtaining information from a potentially large group of workers at a reduced cost. The crowdsourcing process, as we consider in this paper, is as follows: a requester hires a number of workers to work on a set of similar tasks. After completing the tasks, each worker reports back outputs. The requester then aggregates the reported outputs to obtain aggregate outputs. A crucial question that arises during this process is: how many crowd workers should a requester hire? In this paper, we investigate from an empirical perspective the optimal number of workers a requester should hire when crowdsourcing tasks, with a particular focus on the crowdsourcing platform Amazon Mechanical Turk. Specifically, we report the results of three studies involving different tasks and payment schemes. We find that both the expected error in the aggregate outputs as well as the risk of a poor combination of workers decrease as the number of workers increases. Surprisingly, we find that the optimal number of workers a requester should hire for each task is around 10 to 11, no matter the underlying task and payment scheme. To derive such a result, we employ a principled analysis based on bootstrapping and segmented linear regression. Besides the above result, we also find that overall top-performing workers are more consistent across multiple tasks than other workers. Our results thus contribute to a better understanding of, and provide new insights into, how to design more effective crowdsourcing processes

Observation of an unexpected third receptor molecule in the crystal structure of human interferon-γ receptor complex

AbstractBackground: Molecular interactions among cytokines and cytokine receptors form the basis of many cell-signaling pathways relevant to immune function. Interferon-γ (IFN-γ) signals through a multimeric receptor complex consisting of two different but structurally related transmembrane chains: the high-affinity receptor-binding subunit (IFN-γRα) and a species-specific accessory factor (AF-1 or IFN-γRβ). In the signaling complex, the two receptors probably interact with one another through their extracellular domains. Understanding the atomic interactions of signaling complexes enhances the ability to control and alter cell signaling and also provides a greater understanding of basic biochemical processes.Results: The crystal structure of the complex of human IFN-γ with the soluble, glycosylated extracellular part of IFN-γRα has been determined at 2.9 Å resolution using multiwavelength anomalous diffraction methods. In addition to the expected 2:1 complex, the crystal structure reveals the presence of a third receptor molecule not directly associated with the IFN-γ dimer. Two distinct intermolecular contacts, involving the edge strands of the C-terminal domains, are observed between this extra receptor and the 2:1 receptor–ligand complex thereby forming a 3:1 complex.Conclusions: The observed interactions in the 2:1 complex of the high-affinity cell-surface receptor with the IFN-γ cytokine are similar to those seen in a previously reported structure where the receptor chains were not glycosylated. The formation of β-sheet packing interactions between pairs of IFN-γRα receptors in these crystals suggests a possible model for receptor oligomerization of Rα and the structurally homologous Rβ receptors in the fully active IFN-γ signaling complex

Some methods for blindfolded record linkage

BACKGROUND: The linkage of records which refer to the same entity in separate data collections is a common requirement in public health and biomedical research. Traditionally, record linkage techniques have required that all the identifying data in which links are sought be revealed to at least one party, often a third party. This necessarily invades personal privacy and requires complete trust in the intentions of that party and their ability to maintain security and confidentiality. Dusserre, Quantin, Bouzelat and colleagues have demonstrated that it is possible to use secure one-way hash transformations to carry out follow-up epidemiological studies without any party having to reveal identifying information about any of the subjects – a technique which we refer to as "blindfolded record linkage". A limitation of their method is that only exact comparisons of values are possible, although phonetic encoding of names and other strings can be used to allow for some types of typographical variation and data errors. METHODS: A method is described which permits the calculation of a general similarity measure, the n-gram score, without having to reveal the data being compared, albeit at some cost in computation and data communication. This method can be combined with public key cryptography and automatic estimation of linkage model parameters to create an overall system for blindfolded record linkage. RESULTS: The system described offers good protection against misdeeds or security failures by any one party, but remains vulnerable to collusion between or simultaneous compromise of two or more parties involved in the linkage operation. In order to reduce the likelihood of this, the use of last-minute allocation of tasks to substitutable servers is proposed. Proof-of-concept computer programmes written in the Python programming language are provided to illustrate the similarity comparison protocol. CONCLUSION: Although the protocols described in this paper are not unconditionally secure, they do suggest the feasibility, with the aid of modern cryptographic techniques and high speed communication networks, of a general purpose probabilistic record linkage system which permits record linkage studies to be carried out with negligible risk of invasion of personal privacy

High (but Not Low) Urinary Iodine Excretion Is Predicted by Iodine Excretion Levels from Five Years Ago

Background: It has not been investigated whether there are associations between urinary iodine (UI) excretion measurements some years apart, nor whether such an association remains after adjustment for nutritional habits. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relation between iodine-creatinine ratio (ICR) at two measuring points 5 years apart. Methods: Data from 2,659 individuals from the Study of Health in Pomerania were analyzed. Analysis of covariance and Poisson regressions were used to associate baseline with follow-up ICR. Results: Baseline ICR was associated with follow-up ICR. Particularly, baseline ICR >300 mu g/g was related to an ICR >300 mu g/g at follow-up (relative risk, RR: 2.20; p < 0.001). The association was stronger in males (RR: 2.64; p < 0.001) than in females (RR: 1.64; p = 0.007). In contrast, baseline ICR <100 mu g/g was only associated with an ICR <100 mu g/g at follow-up in males when considering unadjusted ICR. Conclusions: We detected only a weak correlation with respect to low ICR. Studies assessing iodine status in a population should take into account that an individual with a low UI excretion in one measurement is not necessarily permanently iodine deficient. On the other hand, current high ICR could have been predicted by high ICR 5 years ago. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Base

Expert Status and Performance

Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience [1], [2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback

Erratum to: Binding Energy and Spin-Orbit Splitting of a Hydrogenic Donor Impurity in AlGaN/GaN Triangle-Shaped Potential Quantum Well

In the framework of effective-mass envelope function theory, including the effect of Rashba spin-orbit coupling, the binding energyEband spin-orbit split energy Г of the ground state of a hydrogenic donor impurity in AlGaN/GaN triangle-shaped potential heterointerface are calculated. We find that with the electric field of the heterojunction increasing, (1) the effective width of quantum well decreases and (2) the binding energy increases monotonously, and in the mean time, (3) the spin-orbit split energy Г decreases drastically. (4) The maximum of Г is 1.22 meV when the electric field of heterointerface is 1 MV/cm

A Profile Likelihood Analysis of the Constrained MSSM with Genetic Algorithms

The Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) is one of the simplest and most widely-studied supersymmetric extensions to the standard model of particle physics. Nevertheless, current data do not sufficiently constrain the model parameters in a way completely independent of priors, statistical measures and scanning techniques. We present a new technique for scanning supersymmetric parameter spaces, optimised for frequentist profile likelihood analyses and based on Genetic Algorithms. We apply this technique to the CMSSM, taking into account existing collider and cosmological data in our global fit. We compare our method to the MultiNest algorithm, an efficient Bayesian technique, paying particular attention to the best-fit points and implications for particle masses at the LHC and dark matter searches. Our global best-fit point lies in the focus point region. We find many high-likelihood points in both the stau co-annihilation and focus point regions, including a previously neglected section of the co-annihilation region at large m_0. We show that there are many high-likelihood points in the CMSSM parameter space commonly missed by existing scanning techniques, especially at high masses. This has a significant influence on the derived confidence regions for parameters and observables, and can dramatically change the entire statistical inference of such scans.Comment: 47 pages, 8 figures; Fig. 8, Table 7 and more discussions added to Sec. 3.4.2 in response to referee's comments; accepted for publication in JHE

Thrombus or tumor? a case of fibroelastoma as indicated during the submission process

We describe the case of a 50-year-old woman who was admitted to a pheriferal department for heart failure. The echocardiography revealed a small mass measuring about 1.3 × 1.0 cm adhering to the non-coronary cusp of the aortic valve, mild dilated cardiomiopathy and severe biventricular dysfunction. This mass had erroneously been considered a thrombotic lesion, so the patient was treated with thrombolysis and heparin e.v. Only after a transoesophageal echocardiography a tumour cardiac mass was suspected. The diagnosis of fibroelastoma was confirmed by MRI and then from the anatomic and histoligical definition after surgery